auma’s method for deciding on process heat electrification before requesting quotations.
We keep hearing the same question at very different plants: “does it make sense for us to electrify process heat?”. The honest answer is that it does not depend on the technology. It depends on three numbers that can be calculated in a few weeks with real plant data. Doing it before requesting quotations saves expensive decisions — especially now, with the European Innovation Fund industrial heat auction accepting projects of more than 10 MW from 80 °C upwards.
1. The real temperature lift, not the catalogue one
The first number is not the capacity: it is the difference between the temperature of the available cold source and the useful temperature the process demands. That lift is what sets the coefficient of performance (COP) achievable under real conditions.
In industrial applications, heat pumps usually work with COPs of between 2 and 5. Every additional 10 °C of temperature lift erodes them noticeably. That is why the first thing we look at is not the boiler to be replaced, but whether the plant has waste heat at 40-60 °C that is dissipated today: compressor cooling, condensates, industrial effluents, extraction air or cooling water. Without a decent cold source, the project starts out lame.
A frequent mistake is to apply the process design temperature instead of the one it actually needs at the inlet. A process at 90 °C can be fed at 65 °C if upstream recovery is integrated. That kind of sequencing is often the difference between an unviable project and a profitable one.
2. The electricity/gas price ratio, not the price of electricity
The second number is a division. The minimum COP to break even with a gas boiler is, approximately, the price of electricity divided by the price of gas and multiplied by the boiler efficiency.
With electricity at 110 €/MWh, natural gas at 35 €/MWh and a boiler at 90 %, the threshold is a COP of around 2.8: below that value, money is lost every operating hour. The practical conclusion is that the project is won or lost as much in the energy contracting and the hourly profile as in the machine.
Two factors move this threshold in favour of electrification year after year: the rising CO₂ cost of gas within the emissions trading scheme (and, from 2027, within EU ETS 2 for fossil fuels not covered until now), and the availability of renewable energy at low prices at certain hours of the day. Taking advantage of solar hours with self-consumption integration or a PPA contract radically changes viability.
3. The equivalent operating hours
The third number is the one that usually decides the investment: annual hours at useful load. A high-temperature heat pump has a specific CapEx far above that of an equivalent gas boiler, and only pays it back if it runs many hours.
Below some 3,000-4,000 equivalent annual hours, it is almost always better to start with passive heat recovery, process thermal integration (pinch analysis) and advanced control, and leave electrification for a second phase when the operating profile justifies it. It is not giving up on electrification: it is sequencing the investments to maximise the return.
Why it is worth running the numbers now
The Innovation Fund industrial heat auction has selected 65 projects in the latest call, 24 of them in Spain. The 2026 call accepts heat pumps with a COP above 1.5 in projects of more than 10 MW from 80 °C upwards — a technical threshold within reach for a wide range of sectors: chemicals, agri-food, paper, textiles, sludge treatment.
To this are added the national schemes: the INNOVAE 2026 Programme with 115 M€ for flagship industrial energy saving projects, the energy saving certificates (CAE) recently boosted by Royal Decree-Law 7/2026, and the tax deductions for efficiency investments. The support is real and it is open.
Whoever arrives with the thermal balance done, the lift characterised and the hours counted comes with a defensible project. Whoever arrives with a catalogue estimate does not.
How we do it at auma
At auma auma we treat this exercise as what it is: data and process engineering before an investment decision. Full thermal balance, heat demand curve by temperature level, inventory of available cold sources and an economic base case with sensitivities to energy prices and to operating hours.
With no product of our own to sell: our 33 years of independence serve precisely to let us say “not here, not yet” when the numbers do not hold up. Our clients hire us precisely because between the commercial pressure of the manufacturers and the investment committee’s will to decarbonise there is a space that can only be filled with technical rigour and independent measurement.
If you have a decision on the table, start with the three numbers. If you like, we can talk it through.